Bank FX views in one page, covering the key drivers, clear bias by pair, and the week’s events that move markets.
USD
Banks say the dollar’s bounce is slowing. The long US government shutdown and weaker growth signs are weighing on sentiment. Scotiabank notes the labor market is softening, while the Fed stays cautious about more rate cuts. Barclays says traders are reacting sharply to news because there is little new data. Overall, the USD may slip lower if the shutdown ends and data confirm slower growth, but sticky inflation could limit the fall. Traders are fading rallies rather than chasing new highs.
EURUSD
Barclays expects the euro to hold firm if US data stay weak. The ECB is likely to stay on hold as inflation cools. Westpac still looks for a weaker USD over time, which supports a gradual rise in EURUSD. European growth is soft but stable. If PMIs or budget headlines improve, EURUSD can grind higher.
GBPUSD
Lloyds sees the pound moving mainly with global risk sentiment and US yields. Inflation is easing, and the BoE is likely to start cutting rates later than some peers. Barclays says low data flow makes GBP moves choppy. A soft dollar and steady UK growth could support GBP near term.
USDJPY
US yields are still high, keeping USDJPY supported. Westpac points to structural yen weakness as investors send more money overseas. A new InvestingLive article says Japan’s big banks have cut their year end yen forecasts, showing less belief in a strong JPY rebound. With the BoJ cautious and fiscal support rising, USDJPY could stay firm.
AUDUSD
CBA notes the Aussie is holding near 0.65 even as iron ore slips. Westpac sees the AUD supported longer term if China steadies and the RBA keeps rates steady for a while. Barclays adds that fewer data releases mean more volatility on headlines. Traders are watching China and RBA speeches. Dips near 0.64 to 0.65 are seen as buying opportunities.
NZDUSD
Westpac NZ says the economy is still soft but should pick up in 2026. Easier RBNZ policy and steady export prices support that view. The NZD may stay range bound for now but could strengthen next year as growth improves.
USDCAD
Scotiabank focuses on Canada’s domestic data and oil prices. The BoC has turned more supportive, and the US shutdown adds noise. CAD strength should come slowly, not in a straight line. Traders are fading spikes higher in USDCAD when oil holds firm.
Other Pairs
CHF trades mainly on interest rate spreads and risk sentiment. Emerging market currencies are quiet with the US data blackout keeping investors cautious.
Bias Table
| Pair | Bias | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| USD | Neutral to Slightly Bearish | Weak growth signs, shutdown, Fed caution |
| EURUSD | Mild Bullish | Softer USD, stable Eurozone outlook |
| GBPUSD | Mild Bullish | BoE later to cut, steady growth |
| USDJPY | Bullish | High yield gap, weaker yen outlook |
| AUDUSD | Mild Bullish | RBA on hold, China support, commodities |
| NZDUSD | Neutral | Slow economy, 2026 recovery coming |
| USDCAD | Mild Bearish | BoC easing bias, oil prices |
Key Event Outlook
United States
The focus is on delayed data coming back, including CPI, retail sales, and job figures. Scotiabank says the labor data will guide the Fed. If inflation cools and growth stays weak, the USD may drift lower.
Eurozone
PMIs and inflation data will guide the ECB. Steady numbers could help the euro hold gains.
United Kingdom
The BoE and CPI will steer the pound. Softer inflation supports rate cuts later, not sooner, which can keep GBP supported.
Japan
Markets are watching for any BoJ comments on inflation and wages. Banks now see less chance of a strong yen recovery this year.
Australia
RBA speeches and jobs data will be key. The Aussie stays supported if the RBA is patient and China demand steadies.
New Zealand
RBNZ speeches and inflation data will guide the NZD. One more cut is possible, then a slow pickup in 2026.
Canada
The BoC tone and oil prices remain the key drivers. A steady BoC and firmer crude would help the CAD.
Bank Desk Weekly FX Report
What the banks are saying, the fundamental bias, and key events.
Sources
Scotiabank – The Global Week Ahead: Taking Stock of the US Labour Market (8 Nov 2025)
– Outlook on USD labour data, Fed caution, and BoC tone for CAD.Marc to Market – Dollar Recovery Getting Tired (8 Nov 2025)
– Detailed technical and macro drivers for USD, EUR, JPY, and CAD.Barclays Weekly Insights (7 Nov 2025)
– Global macro roundup covering the US shutdown, ECB, BoE, and China outlook.Lloyds Market Insights Weekly (7 Nov 2025)
– FX strategist comments on GBP and BoE policy path.Commonwealth Bank of Australia – Economics Daily Alert (10 Nov 2025)
– Market snapshot of AUD, USD, and risk sentiment; commentary from Belinda Allen, Head of Australian Economics.Westpac Morning Report (10 Nov 2025)
– Daily FX wrap and AUD commentary, including US shutdown negotiations and yield shifts.Westpac Market Outlook (Australia) (Nov 2025)
– Forecast tables for interest rates and global growth; RBA and USD views.Westpac New Zealand Weekly Commentary (10 Nov 2025)
– Labour market and NZD outlook; RBNZ rate expectations.InvestingLive – “Japan’s Nikkei, Yen Surge Scenario Fades as Banks Revise Outlook Downward” (9 Nov 2025)
– Reporting on Japanese banks (JPM, MUFG, SMBC) revising yen forecasts, supporting USDJPY bias.
