Bank FX views in one page, covering the key drivers, clear bias by pair, and the week’s events that move markets.

Live information checked on 17 August 2026. China’s delayed July activity data and Canada’s July CPI were still pending at the time of writing.

What Matters Most

The US dollar starts the week under pressure. Weak jobs, softer inflation and disappointing retail sales have reduced expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate increase.

The banks are divided on what happens next. Commerzbank and Westpac believe the Fed has finished raising rates, while Scotiabank says markets still price too much tightening. Danske Bank and CBA expect the Fed to wait in September but raise rates in December.

This is supporting EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and gold, while USDCAD is moving lower. The main risks are UK inflation and jobs, Australian employment, Canada’s CPI, China’s delayed data and further tension around the Strait of Hormuz.

USD

The US dollar starts the week under pressure. July payrolls fell by 23,000, earlier job figures were revised lower, wages rose only 0.1%, and July retail sales fell 0.6%.

The main bank forecasts are divided. Commerzbank does not expect the Fed to raise rates again. Westpac also believes the hiking cycle is finished, while Scotiabank says markets still price too much tightening. Danske Bank and CBA expect the Fed to remain on hold in September but raise rates in December.

This disagreement leaves the dollar vulnerable if US data remains weak. The dollar index has also struggled to gain even while oil prices and bond yields have risen. This suggests the usual support from higher yields and geopolitical risk is losing some influence.

The medium-term outlook is less clear. Oil near the mid-to-high $80s and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz could lift inflation again. US fiscal concerns are another dollar headwind, but a renewed inflation shock would challenge the view that Fed policy has peaked.

Bias: Mildly bearish. The softer US data trend favours further dollar weakness, but energy prices and geopolitical risk could cause sharp reversals.

EURUSD

EURUSD begins the week close to 1.1570 and is testing an important resistance area. The pair has moved above its 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average near 1.1630 now the next major test.

Danske Bank expects the European Central Bank to raise rates once more in September. Eurozone business activity is still expanding, with the composite PMI at 52.0, although easing price pressure creates some doubt about whether another increase will be needed.

Commerzbank’s softer view on US inflation and its expectation that the Fed will remain on hold support EURUSD through the dollar side of the pair. US rate expectations have fallen while the ECB still retains a possible tightening path.

The main risk is that this week’s Eurozone inflation, wage and PMI figures weaken the case for another ECB increase. The pair is also becoming stretched, so resistance between 1.1585 and 1.1630 may be difficult to clear immediately.

Bias: Bullish. The rate outlook and weak US data favour gains, with 1.1500 acting as initial support and 1.1630 the key upside break.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD starts near 1.3540 after benefiting from dollar weakness and relatively firm UK rate expectations. Lloyds Bank notes that the Bank of England remains focused on inflation even as the domestic economy loses momentum.

Lloyds Bank expects the Bank of England to reduce its annual quantitative tightening target from £70 billion to around £50 billion. This would mainly affect the gilt market rather than immediately weaken sterling.

The more important FX question is whether UK services inflation and wage growth remain strong enough to keep Bank of England policy tight. Scotiabank sees yield spreads and the Bank of England’s firm tone as supportive for sterling.

Immediate resistance sits between 1.3550 and 1.3600, followed by 1.3650. A weak labour report or softer-than-expected CPI would make those levels harder to break.

Bias: Bullish. Sterling has positive momentum, but the heavy UK data calendar creates a high risk of volatility.

USDJPY

USDJPY starts near 159.30, close to the level where intervention concerns become more serious. Japan and the US have already intervened in the currency market, but Danske Bank argues that intervention alone is unlikely to create a lasting yen recovery.

A more durable move needs either higher Bank of Japan rates or lower US rates. Japan’s second-quarter GDP grew 0.3% quarter on quarter, below the 0.5% forecast. Capital spending was weak and household consumption was flat.

The result makes it harder for the Bank of Japan to tighten quickly, although Danske Bank still expects another increase over the coming months. The yen nevertheless strengthened early Monday because markets reduced their expectations for Fed tightening.

A move through 160 could trigger another official response. The first downside levels to watch are 158.50 and 158.25.

Bias: Neutral to bearish. Lower US rate expectations favour a fall in USDJPY, but weak Japanese growth limits the yen’s upside.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD begins near 0.7090 and has reached a fresh two-month high. The pair is benefiting from broad US dollar weakness, but the local policy outlook has become less supportive after the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 4.35%.

CBA and Westpac now expect the RBA to remain on hold through 2026. The RBA still says it could raise rates if inflation surprises higher, but slower growth, weak business conditions and softer housing lending reduce the urgency to tighten.

CBA expects the wage price index to rise 0.8% in the quarter and 3.2% over the year. It expects employment to be flat and unemployment to rise to 4.4%. Stronger results would revive RBA hike risk and help AUDUSD extend toward 0.7200.

China remains the largest downside risk. July activity data were delayed and had not been released when this report was completed. Weak Chinese credit growth and falling iron ore prices warn that the results may disappoint.

Bias: Mildly bullish. Momentum and dollar weakness favour further gains, but Australian labour data and China’s delayed release could quickly change the direction.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD starts close to 0.5890. New Zealand’s domestic data are mixed. Retail card spending rose 1.3% in July and the services index remained just inside expansion at 50.6.

Commodity export prices fell 3.9% during the month, led by a 6.5% drop in dairy prices. Westpac describes the New Zealand backdrop as uneven, with political uncertainty adding to the normal data risks.

The RBNZ’s survey showed lower two-year inflation expectations, but inflation is still high enough to keep further tightening in the discussion. CBA’s review also highlights ASB’s view that additional RBNZ increases remain possible.

The pair should benefit if the US dollar weakens, but poor dairy prices and weak Chinese data would limit the advance. A sustained move above 0.5900 would improve the short-term picture.

Bias: Neutral to mildly bullish. The weaker US dollar helps, but domestic growth and export-price signals are not strong enough for a high-conviction bullish view.

USDCAD

USDCAD begins around 1.3880 after falling below 1.3900. Scotiabank remains bearish on the pair. The narrowing gap between US and Canadian two-year yields supports CAD, while softer US inflation and fading Fed hike expectations reduce support for the US dollar.

Oil prices are also helping CAD. Brent is trading near $88 and WTI near $82 as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz keeps supply risk elevated.

Canada’s CPI is the immediate test. Scotiabank and CBA expect annual inflation close to 3.0%, with Scotiabank looking for a firm 0.4% monthly increase. A strong result would reinforce expectations that the Bank of Canada stays on hold or considers an insurance increase.

Scotiabank identifies 1.3817 as the next downside level, followed by the 1.3500 to 1.3700 area. Its estimated range for the week is 1.3771 to 1.3966.

Bias: Bearish. Relative rate expectations, oil and recent momentum favour a lower USDCAD, subject to Canada’s CPI and the US tariff deadline.

XAUUSD

Gold starts the week near $4,400 after recovering from Friday’s fall toward $4,300. Softer US employment, inflation and retail data have reduced expectations for another near-term Fed rate increase. This is weakening the dollar and lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Commerzbank remains positive on gold because it does not expect the Fed to raise rates again. Renewed ETF demand is another supportive factor, with gold funds recording their longest run of inflows since April.

Geopolitical risk also supports the metal. Talks over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, while further sanctions against Iran and the risk of renewed conflict are keeping safe-haven demand elevated.

The main risk is higher oil prices. A sustained oil surge could lift inflation expectations and US yields, limiting gold’s gains even if geopolitical uncertainty remains high.

Gold is testing resistance around $4,400, followed by the recent high near $4,500. Initial support sits around $4,385, with $4,300 the more important downside level.

Bias: Bullish. Dollar weakness, lower Fed expectations and geopolitical risk support gold, but $4,500 is a significant resistance area.

Other Pairs

NOK remains sensitive to energy prices and Norges Bank guidance. Danske Bank says Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.25% and kept a weaker tightening bias. A September increase is still possible, but it is a close decision.

SEK also faces a central bank test. Danske Bank expects the Riksbank to remain on hold but retain a firm tone, leaving a September rate increase possible. Strong inflation or firm guidance would support SEK against currencies with falling rate expectations.

The wider market remains unusually sensitive to oil, sanctions and tariffs. Traditional safe-haven relationships may be less reliable while the dollar is weakening despite higher energy prices and elevated geopolitical risk.

Bias Table

Key Event Outlook

United States

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday are less important than usual because recent jobs, CPI and retail sales figures were released after the meeting.

Danske Bank and CBA still expect a December rate increase, while Commerzbank, Westpac and Scotiabank are more doubtful. US industrial production, housing figures and Friday’s PMIs will show whether weakness is spreading beyond the consumer.

Eurozone

Final inflation, wage data, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Friday’s PMIs will test Danske Bank’s call for a September ECB increase.

Sticky inflation or firm wages would support EURUSD. Weaker price pressure and slower activity would reduce the euro’s rate advantage.

United Kingdom

Tuesday’s labour report, Wednesday’s CPI, and Friday’s retail sales and PMIs form the most important UK data sequence in several weeks.

Lloyds Bank is focused on whether inflation pressure remains strong enough to keep the Bank of England cautious. Services inflation and wage growth will matter most for sterling.

Japan

Japan’s trade report is due Thursday and CPI follows Friday. The weak second-quarter GDP result increases the importance of the inflation data.

Danske Bank believes a Bank of Japan rate increase would give the yen more lasting support than intervention alone. Any move in USDJPY toward 160 will also keep official action in focus.

Australia

Wage data, RBA Assistant Governor Andrew Hauser’s speech, employment and household spending are the main events.

CBA and Westpac now expect the RBA to remain on hold. A strong wage or jobs surprise would have a larger market effect because it would challenge that view.

New Zealand

Food prices, producer prices, trade and services data will help determine whether the improvement in retail card spending is broadening.

Westpac continues to see a mixed backdrop. Dairy prices and Chinese demand remain important external drivers for NZD.

Canada

Canada’s CPI is due Monday, followed by retail sales on Friday. Scotiabank expects firm inflation and sees a case for the Bank of Canada to retain a tightening option.

The 19 August US tariff deadline is an additional risk for CAD and may outweigh domestic data if negotiations worsen.

Other / Geopolitics

Talks over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, shipping is limited and the ceasefire is at risk of ending. Lloyds Bank, CBA, Westpac and Scotiabank all identify energy and Iran-related sanctions as important market risks.

A further oil surge would lift inflation expectations and could reverse some of the recent decline in Fed pricing. It would also support gold through safe-haven demand, although higher yields could limit the move.

China’s delayed July activity data are critical for AUD and NZD. Credit figures were already weak, increasing the downside risk around investment and industrial production. The Riksbank decision and China’s loan prime rates are due Thursday.

Sources

• CBA Perspective and Economics Daily Alert, 14-17 August 2026
• Commerzbank Currency and Economics Research, 12-17 August 2026
• Danske Bank Weekly Focus, 14 August 2026
• Lloyds Bank Market Insights, 13-14 August 2026
• Marc to Market Week Ahead, 15 August 2026
• Westpac Australia and NZ Weekly and Market Updates, 14-17 August 2026
• Scotiabank G10 FX Daily, 14 August 2026
• Scotiabank CAD Weekly, 14 August 2026
• Scotiabank Global Week Ahead, 14 August 2026
• InvestingLive market update, 17 August 2026
• FXStreet XAUUSD update, 17 August 2026