Bank FX views in one page, covering the key drivers, clear bias by pair, and the week’s events that move markets.

USD

The dollar stayed under pressure as markets continued to price Fed rate cuts later this year. Danske Bank points to softer US labour momentum and easing inflation pressures, which are keeping short-dated US yields capped. Marc to Market says last week’s USD rebound was a technical bounce after heavy selling. Citi argues that de-dollarisation concerns are overstated, with global capital still anchored to US assets. Unless US jobs or CPI surprise on the upside, the dollar is likely to remain heavy in the near term.

EURUSD

EURUSD moved higher mainly because the dollar weakened, not because euro fundamentals improved. Danske Bank notes the ECB is firmly on hold and is downplaying both the inflation undershoot and the stronger euro. Marc to Market highlights that front-end yield spreads still matter and could limit further gains. Commerzbank sees the pair as comfortable around current levels. EURUSD needs renewed USD weakness to move higher. Without that, it is likely to stall.

GBPUSD

GBP remains soft after the Bank of England delivered a dovish hold. Danske Bank highlights the narrow 5-4 vote split as a clear signal that rate cuts are approaching, with April now in focus. The BoE also revised down its growth and inflation outlook, reinforcing the easing bias. Commerzbank sees limited scope for sustained GBP strength. GBP rallies are likely to fade unless UK data clearly improves.

USDJPY

USDJPY remains volatile as political and policy risks dominate. Commerzbank focuses on Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide election win, which raises concerns about aggressive fiscal policy and pressure on the Bank of Japan’s gradual normalisation path. Barclays highlights ongoing intervention risk as authorities remain sensitive to yen weakness. The result is continued volatility, with upside capped by intervention risk.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD pushed higher on improved risk sentiment and a softer US dollar. Westpac and CBA note that global risk appetite has stabilised, supporting higher-beta currencies. Commerzbank adds that longer-term copper demand remains supported by China’s grid investment. With limited domestic catalysts, AUD remains driven by external forces. AUD can hold gains if the dollar stays soft, but upside depends on global risk staying supportive.

NZDUSD

NZD has been steady but lacks a clear domestic driver. BNZ notes that the RBNZ remains restrictive, but near-term price action is dominated by global factors. With no major local data, NZD is trading as a secondary risk proxy. Direction will continue to follow USD moves.

USDCAD

CAD remains under pressure despite some support from oil prices. Commerzbank highlights disappointing Canadian labour data and warns that optimism about the economy may be premature, especially given ongoing US trade uncertainty. Oil has helped limit downside, but growth concerns remain dominant. USDCAD is likely to stay supported unless Canadian data improves meaningfully.

XAUUSD

Gold remains volatile after the sharp run-up and pullback. Commerzbank notes that recent price action has been driven mainly by positioning and ETF flows, with profit-taking into strength and dip buying on pullbacks. InvestingLive highlights that gold is testing a key technical area, where failure to hold would point to consolidation rather than another strong leg higher. This points to choppy price action in the near term.

Bias Table

Key Event Outlook

United States

US jobs and CPI are the key events. These releases will determine whether Fed cut expectations remain intact. Weak data keeps the USD under pressure. Strong data risks a sharp USD rebound.

Eurozone

Data is light and ECB messaging is stable. EUR is likely to take its lead from US developments.

United Kingdom

UK data will be watched for confirmation of the BoE’s dovish signal. Downside surprises reinforce GBP weakness.

Japan

Markets will watch for further intervention signals and any pushback against expansionary fiscal plans.

Australia

With limited local data, AUD remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and USD moves.

New Zealand

NZD continues to track broader FX trends, with little domestic influence this week.

Canada

Canadian data matters mainly through the growth outlook and trade headlines.

Other and Geopolitics

Iran-US talks remain relevant for oil prices, while gold volatility continues to reflect positioning rather than trend.