USD

The dollar stayed firm after the Fed’s “hawkish cut” last week. Danske says Powell’s message — that another cut in December is “far from assured” — kept short-term yields supported. Barclays adds that solid US data and the end of quantitative tightening for Treasuries help maintain dollar demand even as easing continues.

Marc to Market notes that with global growth still uneven, the US remains the high-yield anchor among majors. Lloyds agrees, saying the dollar’s resilience reflects both relative policy strength and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

For traders, USD is steady rather than strong. Unless upcoming ISM or payrolls data surprise on the downside, dips are likely to find buyers.

EURUSD

The euro held near 1.16 as the ECB left rates unchanged and signaled patience. Danske highlights that President Lagarde stressed the “symmetry” of the 2 percent inflation goal and noted that downside risks have eased. Lloyds says growth is stabilising but remains too soft to prompt any tightening, keeping policy in a holding pattern.

Marc to Market sees no urgency for the ECB to change course, with inflation close to target and fiscal policy doing the heavy lifting.

Overall, EURUSD remains range-bound. If US yields ease later this month, the euro could test the upper end near 1.1650, but weak growth limits sustained upside.

GBPUSD

The pound is trading quietly ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Danske expects a narrow 5-4 vote for a 25 bp cut to 3.75 percent, while Lloyds says the decision will hinge on whether softer inflation outweighs resilient activity data. Barclays thinks the Bank may pause but keep the door open for one more cut this year.

For now, GBPUSD is holding around 1.32–1.33. If the BoE cuts, sterling could drift lower toward 1.31, but a hold might spark a brief relief rally. Most desks still prefer buying USD on dips rather than chasing GBP strength.

USDJPY

The yen remains weak near 153 as the Bank of Japan stayed on hold. Danske calls it a “wait-and-see” stance, saying December remains the earliest window for another hike if wage data improve. Westpac adds that firm US yields continue to support USDJPY, while Japan’s fiscal support plan has yet to shift the policy outlook.

Overall, yield spreads keep JPY under pressure. Traders see the pair consolidating between 150 and 154 unless US data trigger a sharp move in Treasuries.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar was steady after last week’s China PMI weakness, with Westpac saying risk sentiment cooled after earlier optimism. CBA notes that Tuesday’s RBA decision will hinge on Q3 CPI, which showed sticky services inflation but moderating goods prices. The bank expects no change in rates but continued vigilance on inflation.

Danske says the combination of softer Chinese data and cautious RBA guidance limits near-term upside. For now, AUDUSD is likely to stay between 0.65 and 0.67, with any stronger China headlines needed for a breakout.

NZDUSD

BNZ says the New Zealand economy is soft but stabilising, with the labour market cooling and wage inflation easing. That supports the RBNZ’s patient stance. Westpac adds that NZD remains sensitive to global risk tone and China’s outlook.

Marc to Market expects the kiwi to hold in a 0.57–0.61 range, supported by carry but capped by growth concerns. For traders, the path of least resistance remains sideways until clearer data emerge from China or the RBNZ signals fresh easing.

USDCAD

Scotiabank reports that wider US–Canada short-rate spreads and a cautious risk tone are keeping CAD under pressure. The bank says technicals lean USD-bullish, with a break of 1.4020–1.4050 potentially targeting 1.41 or higher, while support sits at 1.3975 and 1.3890.

Oil prices are steady, offering some offset, but the main driver remains yield spreads. Unless US data soften sharply, USDCAD is expected to stay biased higher through the week.

Other Pairs

Barclays notes that risk appetite remains fragile after recent equity gains, leaving safe-haven currencies like CHF and JPY vulnerable to quick reversals. Danske adds that while US-China tensions have eased, traders should expect volatility around trade headlines and energy markets to persist.

Bias Table

Key Event Outlook

United States

Markets will focus on ISM and payrolls following the Fed’s “hawkish cut.” Danske says Powell’s warning that December is “far from assured” keeps yields firm. Strong data would reinforce that message and support USD; weaker prints would revive talk of a follow-up cut in January.

Eurozone

The ECB meeting confirmed policy on hold. Lagarde emphasised that inflation is near target and risks have eased. This week’s focus turns to retail sales and services PMIs for signs of continued stability.

United Kingdom

Thursday’s BoE decision is the highlight. Danske and Lloyds see a close vote on a 25 bp cut. A dovish outcome likely pressures GBP; a hold could see a brief bounce before sellers return.

Japan

BoJ policy unchanged, with December still possible for the next move. Watch household spending and wage data for signals of policy readiness. USDJPY likely stays elevated unless US yields slide.

Australia

The RBA meets Tuesday. Westpac and CBA expect no change but a firm inflation watch. A hawkish tone could lift AUD toward 0.67; a soft statement risks 0.65 retests.

New Zealand

Labour data and China trends remain the key themes. BNZ expects stability with little urgency for the RBNZ to move before year-end.

Canada

Scotiabank says the focus is on spreads and the 1.40 pivot in USDCAD. Canadian jobs Friday could add volatility, but fundamentals still lean USD-positive.

Other / Geopolitics

Danske and Barclays highlight ongoing US-China engagement and energy market swings as the main wildcards. Any flare-up could shift flows back into USD and CHF.