USD

Westpac says stronger US spending and in-line PCE eased sticky inflation fears, yet the dollar still ended the week higher as yields nudged up. Scotiabank notes the USD rally was supported by firmer data and wider spreads, but they still see challenges for the dollar into year end. Danske calls this a crucial US jobs week and expects the next Fed cut most likely in December, with October possible if labor data softens. Marc to Market says the dollar looks overvalued on long-term metrics but can stay firm near term while US growth holds and spreads favor USD. Lloyds adds that political noise like shutdown risk can add volatility, but relative data strength remains the main driver.

Implication: USD stays bid on resilient data and yields, but is sensitive to payrolls and shutdown headlines this week.

EURUSD

Scotiabank says EUR slipped with spreads as markets pared Fed easing. They highlight the tight link to the 2 year US vs Germany yield spread and a soft technical tone toward 1.1580 to 1.1600 support. Danske expects euro area growth to stay soft and sees a base effect lift in headline HICP with core still well behaved. Marc to Market argues euro upside is capped by weak growth and fiscal strains, especially in France. Lloyds also sees rallies as limited while the yield gap and fundamentals favor USD.

Implication: Sell EUR rallies while US data outperforms and spreads lean USD. Watch the 1.1620 to 1.1720 range into payrolls.

GBPUSD

Scotiabank says GBP is flat vs USD and firmer on crosses as BoE and Fed repricing move in tandem. A break under the early September low near 1.33 would keep pressure on the pair. Lloyds notes UK fiscal worries and softer gilt demand remain a headwind even as the BoE turns cautious on further cuts.

Implication: Sterling tracks the global USD cycle and UK fiscal headlines. Support near 1.3320, sellers likely on bounces.

USDJPY

Scotiabank notes JPY trades defensively with broad USD strength. Tokyo CPI was softer and BoJ minutes leaned toward ending wait and see, but spreads still dominate. Resistance sits near 150 and just below 151. Marc to Market stresses the yen is deeply undervalued on real effective metrics, but US yields and policy spreads still control the tape for now.

Implication: Differentials drive JPY. Watch 150 to 151 for intervention risk and the US jobs print for direction.

AUDUSD

Westpac says AUD faded after testing 0.67, pressured by stronger US data and hawkish Fed talk. A hotter monthly CPI pushed local yields up and the first full RBA cut is now seen in March 2026. Lloyds cautions that China’s slower activity remains a drag on Aussie sentiment despite steady commodity prices.

Implication: Rallies may stall while US data stays firm and RBA easing is delayed. AUD remains sensitive to China headlines.

NZDUSD

BNZ says NZD underperformed after a weak Q2 GDP print, with markets upping RBNZ easing risks. They still expect October and November cuts and keep a year end NZD target at 0.6150, but note near term headwinds with support near 0.58. Lloyds warns fragile risk sentiment and the chance of larger RBNZ cuts can keep the Kiwi heavy.

Implication: Near term bearish. Kiwi needs softer US data or measured RBNZ guidance for relief.

USDCAD

Scotiabank says CAD is cheap but seasonally vulnerable, with USDCAD pressing toward 1.40 as US Canada spreads widen and risk appetite softens. They still look for 1.34 by year end but call that ambitious without weaker US data. Lloyds adds that energy support has been muted while domestic PMIs point to weak growth. Key levels are 1.3925 as support and 1.40 to 1.4020 as resistance.

Implication: Respect upside risk into payrolls. Fades only if US data rolls over.

Other Pairs

Scotiabank flags AUD and NZD as G10 underperformers in a strong USD tape, while MXN trades defensively after the Banxico cut. Marc to Market notes CHF resilience as safe haven flows offset SNB easing.

Bias Table

Key Event Outlook

United States

Big labor week. JOLTS, ADP, Challenger, ISM, and Friday payrolls will set Fed odds. Danske looks for 80k NFP and 4.3 percent unemployment. A shutdown deadline also looms. Strong data keeps USD bid and pressures high beta FX. A downside surprise could spark a USD pullback.

Eurozone

Flash HICP likely ticks up on base effects. Core momentum should stay contained. EUR reaction should track spreads and Fed repricing more than the headline.

United Kingdom

Light data. BoE speakers and gilt demand in focus. Fiscal credibility remains a theme for GBP on crosses.

Japan

Tankan and softer Tokyo CPI set the tone. BoJ minutes leaned hawkish, but US JP yield spreads still drive FX. Watch 150 to 151 in USDJPY.

Australia

Monthly CPI ran hotter and pushed out the first full RBA cut to March 2026 per Westpac. AUD remains sensitive to China PMIs and US data surprises.

New Zealand

BNZ expects two more RBNZ cuts this year. Kiwi stays heavy into confidence surveys and the QSBO ahead of the October meeting.

Canada

Monthly GDP and PMIs test for a turn after Q2 softness. Scotiabank eyes 1.3925 as new USDCAD support with risk of a squeeze toward 1.40 if US data stays firm.

Other / Geopolitics

New US tariffs add to the inflation and growth debate. Shutdown headlines may lift USD on risk aversion, but the main driver remains relative data strength.