Bank FX views in one page, covering the key drivers, clear bias by pair, and the week’s events that move markets.
USD
Banks still see the USD firm in the near term. Danske notes that investors are nervous about an AI-driven bubble and are hedging risk, which keeps the dollar supported. Lloyds points out that gaps in US data after the shutdown have made Fed expectations unstable, with soft patches followed by rebounds.
Marc to Market says speculation about a possible December Fed cut is starting to limit further USD upside, although the dollar remains the strongest major on dips. CBA highlights that falling US yields this week came from renewed rate cut bets. Overall, the dollar holds a mild advantage until incoming data clears up the picture.
EURUSD
Banks stay cautious on EURUSD. Danske sees risks tilted toward short term USD strength, even though their longer term forecast points higher. Lloyds highlights uneven Eurozone momentum, with manufacturing still weak and Germany underperforming. Barclays notes that inflation remains above target but is easing into 2026. Scotiabank’s global view points to modest Eurozone growth but no strong bullish catalysts. EURUSD remains range-bound and sensitive to US data swings.
GBPUSD
Lloyds expects the UK Budget to be a pivotal moment for sterling. Expectations for large tax cuts have faded and the economy continues to cool. Inflation has eased to 3.6 percent, but higher energy costs and the updated OBR forecasts limit fiscal flexibility.
Barclays also expects slower UK growth into year end. Marc to Market notes GBP is steady but lacks positive drivers. Overall bias stays soft unless the Budget surprises positively.
USDJPY
Banks agree USDJPY is the key pair to watch. Japanese officials have signalled a greater readiness to intervene earlier, possibly even before levels around 160. Danske notes authorities are concerned about yen weakness following Japan’s large fiscal package.
Marc to Market highlights that the yen remains under pressure because the Bank of Japan has not shifted its policy stance, keeping yield spreads wide. Westpac expects Tokyo CPI to remain steady and the labour market tight, supporting a slow path toward BoJ normalisation next year. With intervention risks rising, traders should expect sudden drops in USDJPY during thin liquidity periods.
AUDUSD
Westpac expects Australian CPI this week to lift toward 3.9 percent, keeping the RBA cautious. Construction work and capex are softening, pointing to slower domestic momentum. CBA notes that wage growth in the private sector has cooled while consumer activity is mixed.
Marc to Market says AUD has held firm despite global volatility, supported by steady commodities. Danske sees the AUD grinding higher on a 12-month view but expects choppy trading near term. The Aussie remains resilient but sensitive to China data and global risk appetite.
NZDUSD
Westpac expects the RBNZ to cut 25bp this week and signal a mild easing bias into early 2026. They also see the possibility of mixed views within the committee. CBA notes that hiring remains subdued and consumption momentum is modest. Marc to Market says the kiwi is lacking strong domestic catalysts and continues to trade in line with global risk sentiment. The NZD stays heavy heading into the meeting.
USDCAD
Global drivers dominate CAD this week. Scotiabank highlights that global growth uncertainty and softer commodity prices continue to weigh on commodity currencies. Barclays expects Canadian GDP to remain modest, keeping the Bank of Canada cautious. Marc to Market notes CAD remains soft against the USD backdrop. USDCAD stays supported unless oil strengthens or US yields fall more sharply.
Other Pairs
CHF: Lloyds sees Swiss inflation low and stable, keeping CHF steady in ranges.
EM FX: Danske notes geopolitics, peace negotiations, and US policy risks are adding noise but not clear direction.
Bias Table
| Pair | Bias | Key Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| USD | Mild bullish | Safe haven demand, AI risk hedging, unstable Fed pricing |
| EURUSD | Neutral to bearish | Weak EU momentum, inflation easing slowly, strong USD tone |
| GBPUSD | Bearish | Slowing UK economy, Budget uncertainty, soft activity data |
| USDJPY | Bullish but high intervention risk | Wide yield spreads, BoJ policy lag, early intervention warnings |
| AUDUSD | Neutral | Sticky inflation, soft domestic data, China sensitivity |
| NZDUSD | Bearish | RBNZ easing cycle, weak demand, slow labour indicators |
| USDCAD | Bullish | Soft oil, weak GDP, firm USD |
Key Event Outlook
United States
US retail sales, PPI, consumer confidence and the Beige Book are due. Many releases were delayed by the shutdown, making this week important. Soft results will lift Fed cut probabilities. Strong results will support the dollar. Expect volatility around each data point.
Eurozone
German IFO, inflation prints for Germany, France and Italy, and the EC confidence survey are due. Inflation is expected to stay above target for now before easing through December. EUR traders should watch whether manufacturing weakness spreads further.
United Kingdom
The UK Budget is this week’s main event. Markets want clarity on taxes, borrowing and spending. Retail sales and labour trends already show a slowing economy. GBP trading will be heavily event driven around the Budget delivery.
Japan
Tokyo CPI, the jobless rate, industrial production and fresh comments from officials will matter. After renewed signals toward earlier FX intervention, the risk is high that authorities act on any sharp yen weakness.
Australia
Monthly CPI, construction work done, private capex and private sector credit are due. Higher inflation would keep RBA expectations firm and support AUD. Softer numbers would point to slower domestic momentum.
New Zealand
The RBNZ meeting is central. Banks expect a 25bp cut and a cautious easing bias. NZD will react to the statement wording, the updated OCR track and whether the committee shows any division in views.
Canada
GDP is expected to stay modest. CAD will follow oil prices, US yields and broader risk conditions.
Other / Geopolitics
AI-related volatility continues to influence tech sentiment. Ukraine peace discussions are ongoing. China PMIs and industrial profits are key for broader risk tone. Japan’s willingness to intervene remains a major FX theme.
Bank Desk Weekly FX Report
What the banks are saying, the fundamental bias, and key events.
Sources
- Commerzbank AI jitters
AI jitters.pdf - Scotia Bank Global Week Ahead – 21 Nov 2025 (PDF)
globalweekahead20251121.pdf - Marc to Market – Week Ahead, 24 Nov 2025
Marc to Market 24 Nov 25 – Week Ahead_ Will Renewed Speculation of Fed Cut Next Month Cap the Greenback.pdf - Barclays – 24 Nov 2025
Barclays 24 Nov 25.pdf - CommBank – GM Research (PDF)
GM Research – CommBank.pdf - Westpac Morning Report – 24 Nov 2025 (PDF)
WBC_MorningReport24Nov2025.pdf - Westpac Weekly – 24 Nov 2025 (PDF)
WestpacWeekly20251124.pdf - LLoyds Market Insights Weekly – 21 Nov 2025 (PDF)
Market_Insights_Weekly_21_Nov_2025.pdf - Danske Bank – Weekly Focus, 21 Nov 2025 (PDF)
WeeklyFocus_211125.pdf - Japan Signals Greater Readiness for Early Yen Intervention – 23 Nov 2025
