USD

Scotiabank says the dollar stayed firm after the Fed’s small risk management cut, with higher US yields and wider rate spreads supporting USD.

Marc to Market argues the recent USD rally looks stretched and that the greenback’s correction can extend.

Danske Bank keeps a medium term bearish USD view, expecting only gradual Fed cuts and softer US labor trends to weigh later. Barclays notes mixed US data that can add volatility. Near term, respect USD strength while spreads favor it. Tactic: fade spikes into key data, but avoid fighting momentum.

EURUSD

Danske Bank is strategically bullish and maps EURUSD around 1.19 in 3 months and 1.23 in 12 months as the ECB is done cutting and the Fed trims again later.

Commerzbank sees signs of Euro area resilience but warns consumption and investment are still soft. Risk skew: stronger US data or a Euro slowdown could cap gains. Trade idea: buy dips while policy and valuation remain tailwinds.

GBPUSD

Danske Bank reports the BoE held at 4.0 with a 7 to 2 vote and slowed QT to 70 billion per year. They expect cuts in November and February, taking Bank Rate toward 3.5 percent.

Lloyds flags muted UK growth and sticky inflation, leaving GBP under pressure. EURGBP is seen edging toward 0.89 over 6 to 12 months. Bias: sell rallies unless UK services hold up strongly.

USDJPY

Scotiabank highlights JPY outperformed after a hawkish BoJ hold where two members voted for a hike and Gov Ueda kept an October move open.

Danske Bank stresses the Fed’s cutting path is the main driver and sees USDJPY trending lower toward the high 130s over 12 months. Setup: prefer selling rallies, watch Tokyo CPI and BoJ guidance.

AUDUSD

Danske Bank notes AUD gains in a risk on environment with a gentle upward profile toward 0.69 in 12 months.

Westpac cautions that softer Australian jobs and weak China data can cap upside. Positioning: constructive but keep sizing modest around global PMIs and US PCE.

NZDUSD

Westpac cut its RBNZ call after a 0.9 percent q q GDP drop, now seeing a 50 bp cut in October and 25 bp in November. They look for NZDUSD to dip toward 0.58 near term, with bigger weakness on crosses like NZD AUD.

USDCAD

Scotiabank says CAD faded after Fed and BoC decisions as US Canada spreads widened. Their fair value estimate is near 1.3640 and they flag a 1.3750 to 1.3900 range with strong support in the mid 1.37s.

Domestic data is light until Friday’s GDP, so CAD tracks US yields, oil, and risk tone.

Other Pairs

Danske Bank notes Norges Bank delivered a 25 bp cut with hawkish guidance that supports NOK near term. They also stay bearish EURCHF and target 0.91 as SNB policy steadies.

Bias Table

Bias horizon is 1 to 4 weeks unless noted. Review after major data or policy events.

Key Event Outlook