Weekly FX Report Summary

Bank FX views in one page, covering the key drivers, clear bias by pair, and the week’s events that move markets.

USD

Scotiabank notes the dollar’s rebound has stalled as Fed officials lean dovish and US yields slip, while US regional bank stress keeps risk choppy. Westpac adds that the US data vacuum from the shutdown puts more weight on CPI and jobless claims later in the week. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) highlights a modest lift in risk sentiment after the US President signaled tariffs on China are “not sustainable,” easing safe haven demand. For traders, the near-term USD path is tied to yields and tariff headlines. Fading strength into data makes sense with tight risk.

EURUSD

Danske Bank says euro area growth is flat and PMIs should hover near 50, but the ECB looks done cutting for now while France’s budget story bears watching. Scotiabank flags that narrower EUR-US rate spreads are supportive and dips toward the mid-1.16s should find buyers. CBA reports EUR slipped into Friday’s US close before stabilising as risk improved. Trading implication: buy dips unless US yields lurch higher.

GBPUSD

Scotiabank notes better UK industry data helped GBP, and BoE speakers stress inflation “persistence,” arguing for higher-for-longer policy. Westpac points to a busy UK week with CPI, retail sales and PMIs that should set the tone. GBP has support on data beats but is sensitive to global risk wobbles. Fade spikes toward the mid-1.35s unless CPI cools.

USDJPY

Westpac highlights Japan CPI due and a soft global backdrop that has supported JPY on risk-off days. Danske flags political negotiations ahead of the parliamentary vote on the new prime minister, adding headline risk. Scotiabank says JPY outperforms when equities wobble and when US yields dip, with 150 a key pivot. CBA notes USDJPY eased late last week as tensions cooled and UST yields slipped. Respect 149.50–151.50 as a working range.

AUDUSD

Westpac says Australia’s story is mixed, with higher unemployment and rising odds of an RBA cut if CPI allows, while China’s data and the plenum headlines matter for sentiment. CBA reports AUD twice tested 0.6500 as tariff rhetoric eased and commodities steadied. AUD is a beta to risk and China. Buy dips toward 0.6440 with tight stops if China prints are decent.

NZDUSD

Westpac expects Q3 CPI to pop back to the top of the RBNZ band near 3%, but sees it as temporary with the economy still soft and one more cut possible in November. NZD is sensitive to the inflation mix and guidance. Chase strength only if underlying core measures firm; otherwise trade the range.

USDCAD

Scotiabank notes CAD is range-bound. Narrower US-CA spreads help offset risk weakness, while oil is steady. Sell rallies into 1.4060–1.4075 with stops above 1.4100, buy dips near 1.3970 if risk is stable.

Other Pairs

Marc to Market flags that US-China tensions and US politics remain an overhang that can swing havens like CHF and JPY and weigh on EM FX if talks sour. Barclays and Lloyds emphasise that PMIs and CPI prints will steer EUR and GBP near term. CBA highlights that easing tariff rhetoric helped metals and AUD sentiment into the new week.

Bias Table

Key Event Outlook

United States

Delayed September CPI is the key driver for USD rates. A 0.3% core keeps yields capped and leaves USD offered on rallies. Watch jobless claims and PMIs for growth signals. Tariff headlines remain a wild card.

Eurozone

Flash PMIs likely hover near 50. ECB looks done cutting. France’s budget dynamics remain a background risk. EUR dips on weak PMIs should be limited if US yields stay contained.

United Kingdom

CPI, retail sales and PMIs will steer GBP. BoE speakers have leaned cautious on inflation persistence. Strong CPI or firmer services PMI can extend GBP gains; soft prints bring quick reversals.

Japan

National CPI and politics in focus as parliament votes on the new prime minister. A softer US yield backdrop or firmer Japan core CPI can pull USDJPY back under 150.

Australia

RBA speeches and domestic flow light. Labour softness keeps a possible November cut on the table if CPI cooperates. China GDP and the plenum are swing factors for AUD.

New Zealand

Q3 CPI seen near 1.0% q/q and ~3% y/y. Westpac views the rise as temporary given weak demand. Markets will weigh chances of one more cut. NZD pops on hotter core but may fade if guidance stays dovish.

Canada

Retail sales and cross-asset risk lead for CAD. Tighter US-CA spreads help CAD hold ranges. Sell USDCAD upticks unless risk-off accelerates.

Other / Geopolitics

CBA notes the US President said high tariffs are “not sustainable,” easing tensions and lifting risk assets into the new week. Marc to Market warns that any renewed tariff or sanction headlines can quickly swing FX.