USD

The USD has been choppy with mixed inflation signals. US CPI was in line with expectations, but PPI surprised on the upside, hinting tariffs may yet feed into consumer prices. Fed funds futures fully price a 25bp September cut and roughly 55bp total easing this year.

Political risks remain USD-negative, with Trump floating export taxes and undermining Fed independence. Yet risk sentiment is strong, volatility is low, and flows into credit remain supportive of carry trades.

For traders, USD’s near-term path hinges on Jackson Hole and Powell’s tone, but the broader bias is for gradual easing-driven softness.

EURUSD

The euro has rebounded toward 1.17, helped by stronger risk appetite and anticipation of Trump–Putin talks. European data has been mixed: German ZEW fell but remains positive, and PMIs will be key this week.

The ECB is seen on hold at 2.0 percent with markets pricing only a small chance of further easing. Analysts generally view EURUSD upside as limited given Europe’s growth underperformance vs the US, but technicals show higher lows and potential to test 1.1730 resistance.

GBPUSD

Sterling is benefiting from broad USD softness, trading around 1.35 to 1.36. UK data has been constructive: Q2 GDP rose 0.3 percent q/q, labour markets show modest improvement, and wage growth remains robust.

Inflation, however, is expected to peak around 4 percent before a slow decline, keeping the BoE cautious. Traders see GBPUSD as consolidating gains, with resistance at 1.3595 and support at 1.3520.

USDJPY

The yen outperformed after Japan’s Q2 GDP surprised positively at roughly 1 percent SAAR. Inflation remains elevated near 3 percent, supporting expectations for another BoJ hike later this year.

Meanwhile, US–Japan yield spreads remain wide, which caps yen rallies. USDJPY has slipped into the mid 147s. A sustained move below 146 would be significant.

AUDUSD

The RBA cut rates by 25bp to 3.6 percent as expected, with more easing flagged for coming quarters. Inflation is at target, and productivity assumptions have been revised lower, implying less pressure on wages.

Despite firm commodities and China stimulus support, AUD remains range bound near 0.65. Local banks see further cuts to below 3 percent into 2026, which caps medium term upside.

NZDUSD

The RBNZ is widely expected to cut 25bp to 3.0 percent this week. Near term inflation is pushing higher, but medium term pressures remain subdued. Growth is weak but showing signs of life with PMI and PSI improving and exports resilient. Housing is flat, with low migration weighing on demand. Some houses see this as the last cut while others lean toward one more to 2.75 percent.

NZDUSD remains in a 0.5850 to 0.6120 range. A hawkish surprise could squeeze shorts. Dovish guidance would test 0.5850 support.

USDCAD

CAD continues to underperform against crosses despite stable commodities. Fair value estimates suggest USDCAD should be nearer 1.3650, yet spot is heavy near 1.38. Domestic CPI and retail sales this week are key, with core inflation still toasty and retail activity rebounding. The BoC is expected to stay on hold.

Traders note strong resistance at 1.3830 to 1.3840 and support at 1.3720. A break lower would confirm CAD catch-up potential.